Analyzing the Top 2023 Belmont Stakes Contenders (2024)

Analyzing the Belmont Stakes Contenders

The Belmont Stakes is the oldest of the Triple Crown races, and at 1 1/2 miles on the dirt, is a dinosaur with so few main track events carded at twelve furlongs these days. With the short five week span for three grueling races under scale weight of 126 pounds over three very different tracks and three different distances, it takes a very special horse sweep the series. So much so that only 13 horses have completed the task, the last being Justify in 2018.

Thanks to injuries, poor performance in preps, or just plain lack of ability at the distance, the Belmont often gets a short field of horses, even if the race is wide open with no Triple Crown on the line and no obvious standout. While traffic trouble, a major issue in the Kentucky Derby, shouldn't be as much of an issue here, once again 3-year-olds are being asked to do something they've never done and conditioning will be key. In addition Belmont Park's "Big Sandy" 1 1/2 mile oval will be unfamiliar to most horses so we favor those which have had a race over it. Although the Belmont oval is much larger than those at Churchill and Pimlico, given the placement of the winning post it has the shortest home stretch of the Triple Crown at just 1,097 feet. Major factors which separate the likely winners of the Belmont are weighed out in this analysis, as we did for the Derby and Preakness fields.

Like the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes, we have compiled some of the more profitable angles used to select a Belmont Stakes winner in recent years, and applied them to the possible entrants. Some novice horseplayers mistakenly believe a long race immediately favors closers when in fact the Belmont favors stalkers, so we prefer horses rated "E/P" or "P" in BRIS past performances (by comparison "E" types are confirmed front-runners while "S" are deep closers). As well, the 4.00 Dosage Index angle is stronger in the Belmont than in the Derby where it's mostly used; here, we set the upper limit on Dosage at 3.00 and Center of Distribution at 0.75 to account for the longer distance. However as we noted at the Derby, the list of "Chefs" is no longer being updated annually so this approach to handicapping Triple Crown races will gradually lose relevance as the final group of sires drop back in the pedigree charts.

The Belmont favors horses who have zero points in the Solid and Professional wings of their dosage profiles, which is counterintuitive as you'd expect to see indicators of stamina for the demanding 12 furlong trip. As we have for the Preakness, horses that are tied in points will be listed in morning line odds order. It is worth noting that no horse scored the maximum possible point total; each has his share of knocks, as is explained below. You can view the past performances of these horses free here from BRISnet (look for Forte).

Where there is a tie in points we will list the horses in morning line odds order.

Arcangelo tops this year's Belmont entrants, surprisingly as a "new shooter" to the Triple Crown. He is a confirmed presser (BRIS rates him "P 4"), a runstyle he used in his last two starts, both wins, including the Peter Pan Stakes (G3), a sharp prep at Belmont Park right at 4 weeks out, where he ran a new career best 101 BRIS speed figure. He raced once as a juvenile (which qualifies) but just 3 times this year (1 race short). On dosage, he does have the recommended "double zero" but his index of 8.60 and center of distribution of 0.92 are well above pars, so this puts into question his 1 1/2 mile staying ability. Regular rider Javier Castellano rides the 8-1 shot from post 3 for trainer Jena Antonucci.

The next 2 are tied in points and are listed in morning line order.

Forte was the Derby morning line favorite but was scratched, so comes here unraced since winning the Florida Derby (G1) on April 1. He is definitely a presser (BRIS "P 3" rating), has run 100 figures, qualifies on dosage index and CD (but is not a double zero), and has won stakes races. But the favorite has several knocks: he ran too many races at 2 and not enough at 3, is coming off a whopping 10 week layoff (longest in the field), and his last start was not a new career best BRIS figure, regressing from 103 in the Fountain of Youth to 100 in the Florida Derby. Regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. retains the ride for Todd Pletcher aboard the 5-2 favorite from post 6.

National Treasure won the Preakness for trainer Bob Baffert. He qualifies on dosage index and CD (but is not a double zero), is coming off a sharp prep 3 weeks out rating a 100 figure (but it wasn't a new best), and ran 3 times as a juvenile. However he is a front-runner (E 5), has never been to Belmont, and is one start short of par as a 3-year-old. John Velazquez will again be in the irons from post 4 aboard the 5-1 shot.

The next 5 are tied in points and are listed in morning line order.

Tapit Trice was seventh in the Kentucky Derby and has rested since, meaning he is coming off a 5 week layoff (our limit is 4) and not a sharp race. He also regressed from a career best 102 winning the Blue Grass (G1) to a 93 in the Derby. On dosage his index is 3.92 (we want 3 or less), he is not a double-zero, but his center of distribution is right at the par of 0.75. He is rated a P 2 presser, and has enough starts at 2 and 3 including the aforementioned stakes win. Regular rider Luis Saez drew post 2 for the Todd Pletcher-trained 3-1 second choice.

Angel Of Empire finished a close third as the favorite in the Kentucky Derby but skipped the Preakness. His dosage index and center of distribution are the highest in the field at 9.00 and 1.20, which brings stamina to question, but he has a double-zero profile. He is a confirmed closer ("S 0") and is coming off a 5 week layoff (but considered a sharp prep). He has never been to Belmont and his Derby run was not a career best; in fact it was a "double top" of his career best 101 winning the Arkansas Derby, which could set up for a "bounce". Flavien Prat will be in the irons again for trainer Brad Cox from post 8 aboard the 7-2 third choice.

Red Route One was fourth in the Preakness last out for trainer Steve Asmussen. He is one of just 2 horses (the other is Il Miracolo) that satisfy all three Dosage requirements (index, CD, and double zero). The Preakness was not a sharp prep nor was it a new career best (his best was a 98 at Oaklawn, winning the Bath House Row Stakes, so he has no 100+ figures). He has enough starts at 3 but too many at 2, and has never run at Belmont. Regular jockey Joel Rosario retains the mount aboard the 15-1 shot from the outside post 9.

Tapit Shoes drew the rail for trainer Brad Cox as a 20-1 outsider. He lacks any stakes wins, after finishing second to Red Route One at Oaklawn last out, a sharp prep but 7 weeks out, but a race where he earned a new career best 98, not up to par. His dosage index and CD qualify but he is not a double zero, and he only ran three times this year (we look for 4-6 starts). He does have the recommended runstyle, rated "E/P 6" by BRIS. New jockey Jose Ortiz picks up the ride.

Il Miracolo is another new shooter to the Triple Crown, off a Gulfstream allowance after finishing 6th in both the Fountain of Youth (G2) and Florida Derby (G1). He is the second horse (after Red Route One) to satisfy the Dosage requirements. That last race was on May 11, so his layoff is 2 days longer than our 4 week limit. He has never won a stakes, never run a triple digit figure, and he ran a career best 89 in that last race. He has enough starts at 3 but too many as a juvenile, and is making his first start at Belmont Park on Saturday. BRIS rates his runstyle as "E/P 3" which is ideal. Marcos Meneses, who rode him in that allowance race, retains the mount for trainer Antonio Sano from post 5 as the 30-1 longest shot.

Hit Show ranked last in this year's group, off his 5th place finish in the Kentucky Derby. He is a confirmed presser ("P 3") and qualifies on dosage index and CD (but not a double zero). He has a stakes win this year (the G3 Withers) and ran 3 times as a juvenile, right at the max limit. However he is not coming off a sharp prep (5 weeks out) which was also not a best figure, his best figure is a just-short 99 from the Wood Memorial, he has never been to Belmont Park, and he has only raced three times this year. Regular rider Manny Franco gets the call again for trainer Brad Cox aboard the 10-1 shot out of post 7.

• Belmont Entries - With no Triple Crown on the line this year, a small field of only 9 horses was entered with Forte the favorite at 5-2 in post 6. Check out all the entries with full profiles and photos.
• Analyzing the Belmont Stakes Contenders - Our annual analysis using popular angles and statistical trends to see who best matches the profile of a Belmont winner. This year the top horse hasn't run in a Triple Crown race yet!
• Belmont Stakes Workouts - Check out photos from Wednesday morning at Belmont Park with Hit Show and Il Miracolo. Thursday works and racing were cancelled due to the poor air quality.
• Belmont Stakes Workouts - Entries for the Belmont will be drawn on Tuesday. Here are Forte and Tapit Trice in their final timed works and Preakness winner National Treasure galloping on Saturday at Belmont Park.
• National Treasure holds on in the Preakness (G1) - Saturday at Pimlico, National Treasure took the lead early and held off Blazing Sevens by a head to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) while favorite Mage finished third. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
• Preakness Undercard Stakes Results - There were 9 other stakes on Preakness day headlined by the Dinner Party Stakes (G3) won by Never Explain, the Chick Lang Stakes (G3) won by Ryvit, the Maryland Sprint Stakes (G3) won by Straight No Chaser, the Gallorette (G3) won by Whitebeam, and the Sir Barton won by Arabian Lion. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 9 races here.
• Black-Eyed Susan Day Results - Taxed rallied to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) by 3 3/4 lengths over Hoosier Philly and favorite Faiza at Pimlico on Friday. There were 5 other stakes on the card including the Pimlico Special (G3) won by Rattle N Roll, the Allaire Dupont Distaff won by Interstate Daydream, and the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) won by Maple Leaf Mel. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 6 races here.
• 2023 Alibi Breakfast - The traditional Alibi Breakfast was on Thursday May 18, before the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes. Connections of four of the eight Preakness entrants were on hand to swap stories about their horse as well as watch the presentation of the annual awards.
• 2023 Preakness Thursday Photos - Thursday all of the Preakness horses were on the track on a cool, sunny morning. Photos of all 8 of the Preakness horses, including Mage, First Mission, and National Treasure.
• Preakness Entries - A field of only 8 was entered for the Preakness with Mage the only Derby horse in the race. He is the 8-5 favorite in post 3 with First Mission the second choice at 5-2 in post 8. Check out the horses with post positions, odds, and free past performances.
• Analyzing the top Preakness Contenders - Our annual analysis of the contenders to see who best matches the profile of a Preakness winner. It is no surprise that Mage is the runaway winner in this year's analysis.
• Preakness Weather Forecasts - up to 15 days in advance. Looks good for now, warm and overcast.
• Belmont Stakes Tickets on eBay.com
• Mage a magical winner in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) - Saturday at Churchill Downs, long shot Mage rallied from far back to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) by a length over Two Phil's and favorite Angel of Empire. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
• 2023 Kentucky Derby Field - Photos for each horse from the post parade plus where they finished and a link to their profile.
• Miscellaneous Kentucky Derby Photos - All kinds of photos from Oaks day and Derby Day, including trophies, flowers, anthem singers, scenic shots, and more. Check out the photos.
• Kentucky Derby Undercard Stakes Results - There were 7 other graded stakes on the card with the Derby, including the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) won by Up to the Mark, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) won by Fluffy Socks, the Derby City Distaff (G1) won by Matareya, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) won by Cody's Wish, the American Turf (G2) won by Webslinger, the Pat Day Mile (G3) won by General Jim, and the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2) won by Nobals. Get the results, charts, and photos here. New!
• Kentucky Derby Entries - A field of 20 plus three also-eligibles were entered for the 149th Kentucky Derby on Monday. Florida Derby winner Forte was set as the morning line favorite at 3-1 from post 15. Get all the horses, post positions, morning line odds, and free past performances here. FYI - there are now 5 scratches: Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, Skinner, and Forte. All the AEs are in the race.
• Pretty Mischievous wins the 2023 Kentucky Oaks (G1) - Friday at Churchill Downs, longshot Pretty Mischievous held off Gambling Girl by a neck to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by a neck with The Alys Look third and favorite Wet Paint fourth. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
• Kentucky Oaks Undercard Stakes Results - There were 6 other stakes on the card today with the Oaks, including the La Troienne (G1) won by Played Hard, the Alysheba (G2) won by Smile Happy, the Eight Belles (G2) won by Red Carpet Ready, the Edgewood Stakes (G2) won by Heavenly Sunday, the Modesty (G3) won by Didia, and the Unbridled Sidney won by Caravel. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
• Thursday Kentucky Derby Photos - 20 Kentucky Derby horses and 10 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Thursday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs. Two loose horses this morning! Also, Practical Move scratched letting in Cyclone Mischief and later Lord Miles scratched letting in Mandarin Hero. This evening Continuar scratched so now King Russell is in as well. And Friday morning Skinner scratched so only 19 in the race.
• 2023 Kentucky Derby Analysis - Our annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. This year the field is very evenly matched but there is a narrow winner for top choice but it isn't the favorite.
• Wednesday Kentucky Derby Photos - 15 Kentucky Derby horses and 14 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Wednesday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs, plus last year's Derby winner Rich Strike.
• Tuesday Kentucky Derby Photos - 18 Kentucky Derby horses and 13 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Tuesday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs. Also shots of the new paddock and clubhouse turn grandstand and Rich Strike.
• Kentucky Oaks Entries - On Monday the post positions were drawn for the 149th Longines Kentucky Oaks and a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies plus three also-eligibles made the entry box, with 5-2 morning line favorite Wet Paint drawing post 7. Get the horses, post positions, and free past performances here.
• Kentucky Derby Points List - this is what determines which horses can get in the Kentucky Derby field.
• 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby - All the point earning races on the Triple Crown Trail leading up to the Kentucky Derby with results and winners updated as they are run.
• 2023 Triple Crown Late Nominations - Sunland Derby (G3) winner Wild on Ice headlines the list of seven late Triple Crown nominations made eligible by a $6000 fee by the March 27 deadline.
• Early Triple Crown Nominations - 312 horses where nominated by the early deadline of January 29 for the 2023 Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher nominated the most with 42 followed by Brad Cox with 26. Check out all the horses and free past performances from Equibase.
• Derby prep race charts - free from DRF
• Fillies in the Preakness Stakes - a look at the 53 fillies who have run in the Preakness and how they did. So far there have been 5 wins, 5 seconds, and 8 thirds.
• Preakness Traditions - Black-eyed Susans to the winner, the Woodlawn Vase trophy, the Alibi Breakfast, painting the weather vane, and more.
• Official Preakness Page - from the Maryland Jockey Club
• Baltimore Sun Preakness Section - lots of articles and photos
• Blood Horse Triple Crown Mania
• DRF Preakness Special - lots of good info like past winners preps and past performances.
• Triple Crown Trivia Quiz - test your knowledge of the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont and compete with others.
• Send this page to a friend - know someone who would like to see this page? Click here to send them the link.

Back to Horse-Races.Net main page